Apple is projected to surpass Samsung in global smartphone shipments by 2025, a shift that Counterpoint Research forecasts will last through at least 2029. This marks the first time in over a decade that Apple will lead in this market.
Shift in Market Dynamics
According to the latest report, Apple’s shipments are expected to grow by 9% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2025, while Samsung’s growth is projected at 4.6%. This outperformance is driven by strong demand for the iPhone 17 series – including the iPhone Air, Pro, and Pro Max models – which have exceeded initial expectations.
Upgrade Cycle Fuels Growth
A key factor in Apple’s success is a maturing upgrade cycle. Many consumers who purchased smartphones during the pandemic-driven surge in 2020-2022 are now due for replacements. Counterpoint Research notes that roughly 358 million used iPhones were sold between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025, indicating a large base of potential upgraders.
AI Delays Have No Impact
Despite delays in rolling out advanced AI features like the revamped Siri with Apple Intelligence, sales for the iPhone 17 are already higher than those of the iPhone 16. The demand is particularly strong in the US and China, suggesting that consumers prioritize hardware and ecosystem integration over immediate AI capabilities.
Apple’s dominance is not just about innovation; it’s also about timing. The company is capitalizing on a natural market cycle where millions of users are ready to upgrade, and their strong brand loyalty ensures they will likely stick with the iPhone ecosystem.
This shift represents a significant moment in the smartphone industry, signaling Apple’s renewed strength and Samsung’s first major challenge to its long-held leadership.
