Everyone talks about how EV sales are tanking. The headlines are dire. The mood is funereal.
That’s only if you live in the US.
Rest of the world? They are buying them by the truckload.
According to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the apocalypse narrative is a distinctly American hallucination. Global EV sales crossed 20 million units last year. They captured 25% of all cars sold. Not a niche anymore. A major force.
The K-shape has arrived.
One leg goes up. One goes down. And US consumers are on the downward slide, stuck hovering around 10% market share.
Meanwhile, Latin America saw EV sales explode by 75%.
What happened?
Policy. Bad policy. The One Big Big Beautiful Bill Act in the US effectively murdered EV tax credits. It also put up walls to keep Chinese competition out. Two birds with one legislative stone. For startups like Rivian and Lucid, this makes life hellishly hard. They have no legacy internal combustion engines to bail them out. They must sell EVs or die.
Legacy automakers? They can hide behind profits from gas guzzers. For now. It’s a cozy cushion, sure. But cushions don’t keep you moving forward. As consumer tastes shift, sitting still feels increasingly like falling behind.
Look at China.
Chinese brands are driving the top part of that K-curve upward. Nearly 55% of new cars in China are now electric. Half a nation, electric.
Why?
Price.
“Affordable electric cars from China have driven down prices.”
In China, two-thirds of all EVs sell for less than the average fossil fuel equivalent. It’s not a premium product. It’s the budget choice.
This ripple effect has reached Southeast Asia, Europe, and Latin America. More than half of EVs sold in Southeast Asia come from Chinese makers. Europe imported over half a million. The developing world didn’t need hand-holding to see that electricity is cheaper than gasoline.
Some analysts argued developing economies would never adopt EVs due to cost. Those theorists can pack up their bags.
Prices in Thailand have matched internal combustion engine vehicles for two years running.
Will it last?
Maybe not. Chinese dealers abroad are sitting on inventory. They aren’t going to order more until it moves. Plus, other nations might start feeling threatened by this flood of affordable metal. Tariffs could appear overnight.
Doesn’t matter.
Counting Chinese brands out would be a mistake. The state has poured money into turning its auto sector into a manufacturing beast. They currently hold capacity for 65% of global EV demand. Thanks to that state support, they can bleed money and stay in business far longer than any Western competitor.
It’s not just about the present, either.
Gartner predicts that by next year, battery electric cars will simply cost less to build than combustion cars. No subsidies required. Physics and economies of scale. The math works itself out.
The US government, under Trump, seems convinced it can push the domestic market back to fossil fuels. That it can steer away from the global trend.
The market says no.
BloombergNEF data shows the market for gas passenger cars peaked back in 2017. Hybrid sales are rising, sure. But they’re not growing nearly as fast as pure electric. You can’t ignore the vector.
Here’s the real cautionary tale. It doesn’t come from Detroit.
It comes from Tokyo.
Honda recently canned three EV projects. It called off its global EV strategy. In doing so, it hasn’t just parked some cars. It has parked itself.
By pulling back, Honda misses out on the manufacturing lessons that have allowed Tesla and BYD to slash costs. EVs are the best platforms for software-defined vehicles. Software drives margins. Hardware is a race to the bottom. By ignoring EVs, Honda is ignoring the future architecture of the car itself.
Legacy automakers dialing back their EV ambitions aren’t being brave. They’re being blind.
The companies that don’t fix their EV strategy now will find themselves irrelevant. Revenue is just time. Time is running out.
You can’t unlearn efficiency. You can’t unprice affordability. And eventually, every other manufacturer in the world has to face the fact that the electric car isn’t coming.
It’s already here.
Unless you’re in the US.
